Prince George still relatively normal for snowpack in February

The Prince George area was one of the few positives in this month’s snowpack bulletin from the BC River Forecast Centre.

“The snowpack is just a little bit below normal for that Upper Fraser East at 81 per cent, still much better than last year when it was 61 per cent, it essentially stayed at it’s current level or the same level as January 1st,” said Hydrologist Jonathan Boyd.

“More on the western section, that sort of Vanderhoof, Burns Lake, Fort St. James area, it’s an area that actually increased compared to January 1st, there’s limited data compared to the Upper Fraser East, where there’s a lot more stations and at higher elevations.”

Boyd said the telling story for the Prince George area and the two basins was that the first two weeks of January had a couple of strong weather systems come through the area.

“In the middle of the month, they were looking like they were actually going to bump up quite a bit compared to January 1st,” he said.

“Once we hit that dryer section in the second half of the month, it just came back to more of an ‘unchange’ for the Upper Fraser East.”

Boyd noted many of the basins across the province saw drops.

“In some cases, some areas that were quite healthy like the Boundary and Vancouver Island, they dropped 26 per centage points and 35 per centage points respectively, compared from January 1st to February 1st because it was so dry,” he explained.

Much of the snow the Prince George area has seen over the last little while has been lighter, dryer snow, which Boyd says makes a difference.

“The snowpack numbers that we report is actually snow-water equivalent, so it’s the actual water content within the snow,” he explained.

“When we do get that powdery, light snow, it just means that it’s less actual water content, so that shows up in the numbers that we report.”

In terms of flooding or drought, Boyd said there’s not really much concern in the area right now.

“If the snowpack was 110 or 120 per cent of normal, we’re looking at less concern of drought, but really starting to be geared up towards the potential for snowmelt related flooding in the spring,” he said.

“So having the Upper Fraser East at 81 per cent of normal does diminish that risk of flood at this moment in time, and again, both the Upper Fraser East at 81, Upper Fraser West at 92 per cent of normal, so that means a little less at risk for drought, compared to a neighbouring boundary which the Nechako.”

Boyd noted the Nechako basin is at 58 per cent of normal, even lower than it was last year.

“Most areas of the province are still actually higher that it was last year, but the trend has been going down the first 11 days of February,” he said.

“We aren’t really seeing a lot of snow accumulation, it’s sparse right now, for the most part, I’d say probably five percentage points lower across the board throughout the province, just based on what’s happened so far in February.”

Boyd added what happens with the spring weather conditions often dictates drought conditions.

“If we have a very hot and dry May, that can be the trigger for drought,” he said.

“Drought and wildfire often are associated with each other, so still there’s, even based on the snowpack numbers, there’s still a lot of uncertainty with the season ahead.”

He noted that typically 66 per cent of the season’s snow falls before February 1st, meaning there’s still about a third of the season to go for snow to accumulate.